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What if….?
You’ve labored for hours (days?) on a detailed cyber-risk assessment and you’ve just finished presenting it to your team. Someone immediately pipes up and says, “Ok, but what if….!” It can be hard to pivot to hypothetical scenarios in these situations, particularly on the fly. Many of the more simplistic analysis approaches won’t easily accommodate…
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Backtesting Incident Frequency Forecasts
An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today. -Laurence J. Peter It’s astoundingly easy to make predictions about the future of cybersecurity risk (and lots of people do!) but it is sadly much less common to revisit those predictions after the fact. The point here…
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Forecasting the Past, Present and Future of Cyber Risk
“I am large, I contain multitudes.” Walt Whitman This post will be a bit of a deep dive into some of the technical considerations that go into analyses that we provide to our Risk Retina subscribers. Fair warning, things might get at least mildly statistical! We’ll start with a standard question that we have addressed…